It is common knowledge that the betting public loves to play favorites. It seems that the public has a myopic mentality that says that they are betting on the best team when they put points with the "chalk". But is that really the right way? I say "no" and I will tell you why.
First, let's look at this from a strictly averaging law perspective. If you bet on the favorite, three things can happen and two are not good. The favorite could lose the game directly or the favorite could win the game, but not by more points than he had to give up. The only way to win is if your favorite wins the game for more points than you had to give up. So there is a two out of three chance that you will lose your bet.
If you support the underprivileged, three things can happen and two of them are in your favor. The underdog could win the game directly or could lose the game, but for fewer points than he is receiving. So there is a two out of three chance that you will win your bet.
Two scenarios are common in the world of soccer betting. First, a favorite comes out and exercises his will over his opponent, gaining a great advantage. But in the NFL, there are no pollsters to impress, so what is the favorite's motivation to keep going up? Players don't care about the extent of the point. Often times, they "turn off the gas" and head for victory. Have you ever lost a bet on the dreaded วิเคราะห์บอล.
In the second scenario, the favorite vanishes, with a lack of motivation against what they perceive as an inferior opponent. Perhaps the favorite comes from a great victory against a division rival and has another rival on deck. The underdog (the players are almost always motivated in the role of dog) shoots out and takes the lead. Many times, the favorite will return and escape with victory, but not the cover.
I am in no way saying that you should only bet on the underdog, but it seems like a good idea to endorse a underdog in the right situation instead of betting on a favorite just because they seem to be the best team. Remember, the best team doesn't always win, and sometimes the team that seems to be the best team really isn't.
Records can be misleading. For example, Team ABC might be 3-0, but three teams played that haven't won a game. The XYZ team could be 0-3, but three teams played that have not lost a game. Don't get caught up in the records.
Statistics can also be misleading. For example, Team ABC may be scoring 30 points per game, but they played against defenses that allow 30 points per game. The XYZ team may be scoring just 20 points per game, but they played against tougher defenses that only allow 20 points per game. Careful analysis is always required. Don't take statistics to the letter.
Statistics are often biased or not what they appear to be. For example, the ABC team allowed 400 passing yards last week. But what the statistics sheet doesn't show is that half of those yards were allowed on the garbage team after the team increased 28 in the fourth quarter. Again, a thorough analysis is required.
In short, you shouldn't bet all favorites or all below. True professional gamblers bet mainly on those below because, as I mentioned earlier, in that scenario, two of the three scenarios work in your favor. So while gambling on everyone below isn't the way to gamble riches, it's a good idea to look first to get the points.
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